Food Trends Memo: 'Let Them Eat Cupcakes:' Cupcakes Are So Popular They Even Beat Out 'Financial Crisis' Says Google Trends

Think American consumers are focused on the current financial crisis during these dark economic days of September?

You know, the financial crisis President George W. Bush, Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson, Presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain, and U.S. Congressional leaders of both parties are saying is so serious that if a $700 billion bailout package isn't passed immediately by Congress, signed by the President and implemented right away could, in the less than eloquent phrase uttered by President Bush at the end of the financial crisis summit meeting he held at the White House on Thursday, result in "This sucker (the U.S. economy) going down."

Think again.

Based on data from "Google Trends," the analytical tool provided by Google.com, which shows and ranks the most popular searches people are doing on Google, few Americans are "googling" the term "financial crisis" on the popular search engine

Mother Jones magazine was curious if Americans were going to Google in throngs in order to search and find out about the financial crisis which many serious people are saying could be the modern day version of the 1930's Great Depression, which was the most serious economic collapse in U.S. history.

Therefore, last Thursday Jonathan Stein of Mother Jones went to Google Trends and set the function's time period to September, 2008 to see what if anything Americans were searching for more than "financial crisis." By the way, anybody can use Google Trends. We do often.

And guess what writer Stein found Americans were far more interested in learning about in percentages far exceeding searches about the "financial crisis?"

The number one ranked search for September so far isn't the "financial crisis," nor even "economic crisis."

Rather, the overwhelmingly most popular search on Google thus far in September is for "cupcakes," that delicious mouth-sized cake treat that's been becoming one of the hottest food (and more specifically dessert) trends in the U.S. for the last few years.

As you can see in the chart at the top of this story, "cupcakes" (the gold-colored trend line), "sex toys" (green line) and "wizards" (reddish-brown line) are all overwhelmingly far more popular search terms on Google.com in September than "financial crisis" is.

In fact, according to Google Trends, Americans also are interested in the following topics, after the top three above, far more than they are in "financial crisis." Those topics are:

"Bristol Palin": searched for 17.5 times more often than "financial crisis" in September; "Puppies": 24.4 times more; "Vacation": 28.6 times more; "Fashion": 44 times more than "financial crisis"; "Fantasy Football": 44 times more "Baseball": 50.5 times more"; and Sex": searched 292 times more than "financial crisis."

If we recall our history correctly, a few century's ago the very aristocratic former Queen of France was reported to have said in response to a question about what her country should do during its time of severe economic crisis -- so severe in fact that the people were on the edge of revolt -- "Let them (the people) Eat Cake."

In the case of cupcakes and Google Trends' analysis, it appears that in this current financial and economic crisis in the United States, the desire to eat -- and learn more about cupcakes -- is a grass roots movement rather than a top-down dictatorial edict like the one given by Marie Antoinette, who met her fate at the receiving end of a guillotine.

This isn't the end of the story though.

Before you (readers) get bent out of shape about the intelligence and priorities of the American people -- cupcakes and wizards over financial crisis for example -- a Mother Jones reader points out in the comments section of the publication his theory for why "cupcakes" is so much more popular of a searched topic than "financial crisis."

Doing a little research on Google Trends himself, Andrew Hires says the reason "financial crisis" rates so far below cupcakes (and all the other topics we listed) is because Americans using Google are using the search term "bailout" to read and learn about the current financial mess instead of "financial crisis. Here's Mr. Hires' comment on Mother Jones:

"It's because they are all searching for the term "bailout". 5x the cupcakes rate."

http://www.google.com/trends?q=bailout%2C+financial+crisis%2C+cupcakes&ctab=0&geo=all&date=2008-9&sort=0

Posted by: Andrew Hires on 09/25/08 at 3:43 PM Respond

You will notice in his comment he provides a link to his Google Trends analysis, which does show "bailout" having five times the search trend rate than does "cupcakes."

We tend to agree with him on this. After all, most Americans know there is a financial crisis -- they don't need to look it up on Google. But what they are very interested and concerned about is the Bush Administration's proposed $700 billion "bailout" of the Wall-Street financial firms. Like the man once said about government: "Follow the money." For Americans "the money" (Their tax dollars) is in learning more about the proposed "bailout" rather than searching for generic information about the "financial crisis."

But with all this said, the fact American consumers are so interested in cupcakes is in and of itself a very interesting and potentially valuable piece of data.

If you are a supermarket chain vice-president or director of bakery, an in-store bakery category manager at a supermarket chain or independent, a bakery department manager in a supermarket, an executive of a bakery chain or the owner of a single bakery, or in the baked goods manufacturing business, the response to this information should be rather clear -- MORE cupcakes. Make more varieties, build more in-store bakery cupcake displays, cross merchandise cupcakes in other parts of the store, promote cupcakes...and more. Get on the great cupcake bandwagon, in other words.

It's clear Americans are very interested in cupcakes. We suggest those of you in the baked goods business, at whatever segment or level, make it easier for these very interested consumers to buy and eat more cupcakes.

We'll even suggest a sign to go with one of those in-store bakery cupcake displays we suggested above. That sign would have a picture of Democratic candidate for President Barack Obama on the left and a picture of his Republican challenger John McCain on the right; with an American flag pictured between them.

Below the pictures and the American flag, the text would read: "Let Them Eat Cupcakes."

And of course, the cupcakes being featured in the display would have three colors of frosting: red, white and blue.

After all, with a financial crisis in progress and the U.S. Presidential election just a little over a month away, consumers need a little food indulgence. (A little wizard and sex toy indulgence it appears as well, according to Google trends.)

Cupcakes can be a very comforting and affordable indulgence. They're sweet treats that don't do too much damage to either the pocketbook or the waistline.

And, as we now know, cupcakes are currently top-of-mind among many American consumers. In fact, we bet at least one or two of the shoppers among the many who will buy the cupcakes on that "Let Them Eat Cupcakes" in-store display will be among the millions who've searched "cupcakes" on Google.

Food Trends Memo: Air-Chilled Chickens Could Become 'Hot' in the U.S.

In the world of chicken processing, marketing and sales, it seems what's now being air-chilled also is becoming a potentially hot commodity, so to speak.

A number of upscale grocers in the U.S. have recently started selling air-chilled chickens, which the retailers' say taste better than water-cooled birds. Air-chilled, water-cooled? It sounds more like a car motor than a chicken, doesn't it?

Perhaps a little background is in order: The traditional method of "cooling" chickens in the U.S. poultry industry is to immerse the bird in chlorinated ice water after it's been slaughtered. Within four hours after a chicken is slaughtered, the USDA requires processors to get the bird's carcass temperature down to 40 degrees in order to reduce the bacteria level in the chicken. This generally takes about an hour in the chlorinated ice water bath. Multiple chickens are water-bathed at the same time.

By contrast, air-chilling which has been used in Western Europe for at least 45 years, cools chickens after slaughter by blasting them with cold air. After the birds are slaughtered, they are sprayed with chlorinated water inside and out. Then they are whisked one at a time down a one-mile track through a chamber, where they're misted with blasts of cold air. Both chilling methods are designed to reduce bacteria in the birds after they're slaughtered.

Numerous supermarkets and butcher shops in Western Europe have sold the air-chilled birds for decades, and air-chilling has been used by poultry processors in the region for about 45 years However, the concept has only recently been implemented by a handful of poultry processors in the U.S., which is why until now it was near-impossible to buy a non-ice water-cooled chicken in America.

But, as we said above, that's changing. Whole Foods Market, Inc. is the leader in offering air-chilled chickens for sale in the U.S. in fact, even though 99% of the chickens slaughtered and processed in the U.S. are still cooled the old fashion way, by dunking the dead bird in a huge tub of ice water, the Supernatural grocer has decided to eventually convert most of its full-service meat counters in its U.S. stores to sell only air-chilled chicken.

First up for Whole Foods' are its Northern California division stores. The grocer is in the process of changing-over the full-service meat cases in all of its 25 stores in the region so that soon only air-chilled chickens will be sold in them. The air-chilled birds are being sold in a number of Whole Foods' San Francisco Bay Area stores already, with the remaining stores set to begin doing so soon. Whole Foods' stores are selling the air-chilled chickens for $2.49 pound.

Another upscale San Francisco Bay Area-based grocer, Andronico's Markets, which operates eight supermarkets in the region, just last week started carrying the air-chilled chickens in all of its stores' full-service meat cases.

Proponents of air-chilled chicken argue that among other things, the simple fact you are getting a chicken without the water added from the time spent in the cold water dip makes the method--and thus the resulting bird--preferable to them. (Both methods use chlorinated water. However, in the air-chilled method the water is just misted inside and outside the chicken before it's air-chilled. In the water bath method, the bird is plunged into the chlorinated water for about an hour.)

The three main arguments the proponents of air-chilled chicken site as to why they believe its superior to ice water-cooled chicken are: safety, flavor and texture.

Safety

Since air-chilled chickens are handled separately rather than together, which is the case with ice water-dipped bids who share a communal bathtub, pro air-chilled advocates argue they contain less bacteria from cross-contamination. The results of studies comparing the two methods and bacteria levels are mixed however.

For example, a study at the University of Nebraska in 2000 concluded that 350 air-chilled chickens had about 20% less bacteria than the same number of ice water-cooled birds did. The study examined only one air-chilled poultry processing plant and one water-cooled plant however.

However, last month Consumer Reports found that of 28 chickens they bought in a supermarket for the test, five had salmonella and 19 has campylobacter, another form of bacteria sometimes present in raw chicken. Both forms of bacteria can cause illness. However, the bacteria strains can be killed by cooking the chicken to an internal temperature of at least 165 degrees.

Lastly, a study published last year in the Journal of Food Protection concluded that both air-chilling and ice water-bathing worked equally in reducing bacteria in processed chickens. In other words, the researchers reported that one method wasn't better than the other from a food safety perspective.

Flavor and Texture

Pro air-chilled advocates believe the birds' taste more natural and less artificial than ice water-dipped birds do. the supporters' primary taste argument is that because air-chilled birds aren't soaked in water, they don't absorb water like the ice water submerged chickens do. As a result, the air-chilled proponents say the air cooling method leaves the real or natural taste of the chicken undiluted.

the air-chilled supporters have some scientific evidence on their side in this argument. Numerous studies have shown that ice water-chilled chicken absorbs from 2% -to- 12% of its weight on average in added moisture. According to a number of food scientists, that moisture ends up in the chickens skin, which they suggest results in a less-crisp cooked chicken. This scientific evidence is backed up by practical evidence from professional chefs. Many of them prefer to use air-chilled chickens, especially for roasting, because they say the end result is a bird with far crisper skin and better color.

Air-chilled chicken in its infancy in U.S.

Although the air-chilled method has been popular with poultry processors in Western Europe for at least four decades, only a handful of companies are using the method in the U.S.

Nebraska-based MBA Smart Chicken was the first poultry processor in the USA to employ the air-chilled method in 1998. A few other companies have followed the poultry company's lead, but it's still a tiny, niche market.

Pitman Farms, a small poultry company based in Fresno, California, started air-chilling some of its chickens two years ago and has created a strong and growing niche market for the non-ice water-bathed birds.

The Fresno poultry processors' air-chilled chicken brand, "Mary's Air-Chilled Chicken," is being sold at Southern California Whole Foods stores, the Andronico's chain mentioned above, and at numerous upscale multi and single store independent supermarkets, and at some natural foods stores, in California. About half of Pitman Farms' chickens are currently processed using the air-chilled method. The other 50% are ice water-bathed.

Southern California's gourmet grocery chain Bristol Farms, which is owned by SuperValu, Inc., is selling the company's birds under its own store brand at all of its stores in the Southern California region and at its one store in Northern California, in San Francisco.

In fact, Bristol Farms recently stopped selling water-cooled birds altogether in its stores, and is now offering only air-chilled varieties. Other food retailers such as the Wegmans chain in the eastern United States and HEB in Texas are selling the air-chilled chickens, as well as the traditional ice water-bathed birds, in some of their stores.

Air-chilling and the bird of the future

The history of chicken raising, processing and marketing in the U.S. is an interesting one. Not all that long ago, most chickens were raised locally and free-range-style. (The term free-range would have been redundant then.) Additionally, the birds were raised cage-free (another redundant term then), and fed a primarily pesticide-free, hormone-free and antibiotic-free diet.

However, when chicken raising and processing became a big business, and "factory-style" poultry farming was invented, the birds' began being raised in cages and were fed a formulated diet of grain grown using pesticides, fungicides and synthetic fertilizer. Further, the chickens were fed antibiotics to minimize disease and given hormones to plump then up fast.

Then, beginning in the late 1960's and 1970's a "back to the future" poultry farming movement began. A few small farmers began raising the birds the old fashion way again. Then in the 1980's, the organic chicken movement began gaining steam, first with small farmers and processors, then eventually among a number of larger firms. Free-range chicken farming started taking hold about that time as well.

By the 1990's, organic, all-natural and free-range chickens were marketed by numerous companies and offered for sale by many supermarkets in the U.S. The trend has grown by double-digits each year since the early 1990's. Today, even middle-range supermarkets generally sell at least one brand of organic chicken. Further, most upscale grocers and natural foods stores sell organic, hormone-free, antibiotic-free, free-range chickens in their stores.

We see the trend towards more grocers selling air-chilled birds increasing. These chickens will be raised the traditional way but air-chilled rather than ice water-cooled.

We also see marketers who sell the no-drug, no-hormone, organic, free-range birds adding air-chilled to those birds' pedigree. It will be another selling (and perhaps food safety and flavor) point, along with the other attributes listed above. The latter is the emerging trend we are seeing at Whole Foods, Bristol Farms, Andronicos, Wegmans and others.

The state of the bird: The current U.S. fresh chicken market

Organic, free-range and air-chilled chickens currently only comprise about 1% of the total fresh chicken market in the U.S. The remaining 99% is comprised of traditionally-raised and processed--including ice water bathed--birds. However, within that majority, there is a growing trend towards chickens raised without the use of antibiotics and hormones.

There's also a trend among U.S. consumers to buy traditionally raised chickens that have no water or other broths added. Some marketers do this as a way to add volume to the bird. It's a completely separate process from the bacteria-killing bathing or air-chilling.

The USDA allows companies to add a certain percentage of water, broth and even seaweed extracts to fresh poultry and still call the chicken "all natural." Essentially, this practice, which we call "juicing," allows poultry firms to get more bang (profit) for the bird. It serves no needed food safety or other purpose.

A group of U.S. poultry companies, which don't add any liquids to their respective chickens, is currently lobbying the U.S. Congress to change this law so that companies who add the water and other liquids to the birds will no longer be able to use the term "all natural" on the "juiced" chickens' labels. The California Poultry Federation, which is leading the campaign, says its fine for the companies to add water, broths and seaweed extract to the birds if they choose to. However, they shouldn't be able to label the "unnatural" birds "all natural," the group is arguing. [You can read a piece we wrote on January 22, 'Juiced Chickens That Wear an All Natural label,' here.]

Whole Foods' in Northern California says its seeing growing popularity among shoppers for the air-chilled chickens in its stores where the grocer has thus far introduced the birds. The air-chilled chickens were just introduced in February, and the supernatural grocer says it is already seeing about a 15% increase in sales over the previous month, as customers learn more about the air-chilled process. Of course, there is the "newness factor" as well,which we expect accounts for some of that sales gain. Air-chilled just sounds better, healthier and tastier than water-cooled, don't you think?

We suspect air-chilled chicken will remain a niche--likely a smaller one than organic and perhaps even smaller than free-range. However, many chefs in Western Europe and increasingly in the U.S., use the air-chilled chickens as much as they can, primarily because they argue the birds' skin roasts to a nicer crispness and color and that the chicken itself tastes better than the traditional water-bathed birds do.

Whether these chefs could really tell the taste differences between the two--air-chilled vs., water-cooled-- in a blind tasting we don't know. However, we do believe if celebrity chefs such as those on the Food Network and elsewhere start talking up air-chilled birds, we will see a rapid increase in the sales of the chickens, and perhaps even the start of a faster-growing fresh chicken niche marketing trend.

Thursday Talking Points Memo: Food, Society and Marketing

RIP: The Dinner Entree?

Some say the traditional dinner entree-side-dish-dessert dining tradition is nearing extinction, or worse--that it's already dead. Others say it's not true. Rather, they say, its merely becoming another option, along with a host of new ones, for diners and eaters. We agree more with the latter than the former argument. However, the entree is losing its luster at many higher-end restaurants, and that has implications for food marketers and retailers.

An eye-opening and interesting piece by writer Kim Severson in yesterday's (December 5) New York Times has a number of very successful and well-known chefs and restaurateurs predicting the extinction of the dinner entree--that "center-of-the-plate" piece of protein-packed meat, fish or fowl. This phenomenon also has implications for food marketers and retailers, especially those in the natural and specialty foods categories.

Severson writes that in top restaurants in New York City, San Francisco and Chicago, "the main course is under attack." In it's place, top chefs say instead they're offering small plates, sample and snack menus, enhanced appetizers, salumi plates and cheese boards and similar offerings, which provide diners with small tastes with lots of variety rather than the standard entree, side dish and vegetable combination.

"The appetizer, once a loyal lieutenant," Severson writes, "is now demanding more attention on menu's. Side dishes and salads, fortified by seasonal ingredients and innovative preparations, are announcing their presence with new authority."

The chefs say the entree has been losing its cachet for some time. "I think the entree has been in trouble for a long time," chef Tom Colicchio says. "Eating an entree is too many bites of one thing, and it's boring."

In his Manhattan restaurant Craft, which he opened in 2001, Colicchio no longer offers the standard appetizer-entree-dessert menu, according to the Times' piece. Rather, at Craft he's created a menu of meats, fish, fowl, side-dishes and sauces to be mixed and matched by diners and combined into a meal. He still offers desserts though.

This trend of pushing aside the appetizer-entree-dessert format is a growing movement at restaurants. Severson sights the Spotted Pig in Manhattan's West Village, where the menu is categorized by the following: snacks, plates and sides. It offers a variety of each. The menu only has five entrees on it.

Other Manhattan restaurants doing similar include Gemma, in the Bowery district, Boquerra, in the Flatiron District, Maze, British TV star-chef Gordon Ramsey's restaurant located in the London Hotel, and others. Maze's menu lists a long list of small plate items of all varieties but doesn't designate any of them as either a starter or a main course. The word entree appears nowhere on the restaurant's menu.

Popular New York chef Maio Batali has his own theory about the eventual extinction of the entree. He tells Severson: "As a diner, the idea of me chewing 17 bites of one thing and another 17 bites of another is absolutely boring, and not how I want to eat, chef Batali says. Two of the restaurants he owns in New York City, Otto and Casa Mono, offer no main course entrees at all.

Other's in the Times' story suggest health concerns, global travel, and the desire among diners to experience multiple tastes over a meal rather than gorge on a single entree and just a couple of side dishes, as partial reasons for the entree's fading from the dining scene.

Although we believe the demise of the dinner entree is likely rather far off in the main, in reality it isn't that old of a dining concept. Paul Freedman, a professor of history at Yale University and author of a new book, "Food: The History of Taste," tells Severson that "although it's hard to imagine a time when the single-entree meal wasn't the norm, the concept is only about 75 or 80 years old, and not necessarily something to be cherished."

Not all chefs believe the entree is doomed to the garbage disposal of culinary history however. Popular San Francisco chef Michael Mina, who made famous the concept of multiple tiny courses embedded within a single entree, believes there's room for both the alternatives and the traditional entree in dining. Mina just opened an upscale steakhouse called StripSteak in Las Vegas. At StripSteak, the entree--prime steaks of various cuts and sizes--has a home in the center-of-the-plate.

On the other side of the menu, Mina is in the process of planning a restaurant and wine bar in San Francisco, scheduled to open next year, that will offer no main courses at all. Rather, it will offer 25 same-size dishes divided into five categories. Diners can mix and match the dishes as they please to make a meal.

Severson's New York Times' colleague, food critic Frank Bruni, agrees strongly with those like chef Mina who believe there's still plenty of room left in the culinary scene for the entree. After reading Severson's piece, which he complements, Bruni then wrote his own retort to those wishing the entree's extinction in the Times' food section blog called "In Defense of the Entree." Bruni says he loves small plates and such but, quoting Mario Batali's 17 bites comment, says "Sometimes that's just how I want to eat." His piece is a good complement to Severson's.

Analysis: Implications for food marketing and retailing

There's without a doubt a trend, especially at higher-end restaurants, towards smaller plates and variety. We see it weekly. The introduction of Tapas at restaurants in the U.S. started this trend. Health concerns--diners today in the main just don't eat huge dinners like was the norm in the 1960's and 1970's--play a part as well. People would rather in many cases eat less but have better quality in a restaurant.

Variety also is key. The old rules of a meat, poultry or fish main course, along with a starch and a vegetable on the side, just don't make sense to many diners today, especially younger people and those who've traveled and sampled foods from other cultures--or for that matter just watch the world of food on The Food Network or PBS.

It's a fact food trends often start at restaurants first, especially innovative ones. These trends then work there way down the "food chain" to specialty stores and supermarkets. So, how goes this trend towards more limited entree or main course dining for marketers and retailers?

First, we don't believe the entree is going away anytime soon. However, we do believe it's becoming less important in dining and to diners. Mix and match is cool. Multiple tastes are part of the eating experience. Also, the more restaurants that offer small plate and other similar alternatives--and do away with entrees altogether--the more the trend will grow. Trends are a two-way, push and pull concept: consumer demand fuels them (pull) while at the same time what restaurants and other food venues offer and how they offer it influences consumer choice (push).

Second, we believe the trend towards limited and non-entree dining is important for food marketers and retailers to recognize and understand. It means things like smaller portions and more variety in terms of in-store fresh-prepared and manufactured frozen foods. For example, It might be smart (and profitable) for a frozen food marketer to come out with a line of "small plate" frozen foods to complement the traditional frozen entree. A quality, upscale, global-flavored line of all-natural or organic "small plates" or Tapas is a perfect fit for a natural or specialty foods company looking for a new niche. All-natural, premium, fresh, convenient--these are among the current top food trends and will be for the next couple years.

At retail, the trend has implications for fresh meat departments for example. Cutting and merchandising smaller pieces of steak, pork and other meats makes good sense. Instead of cooking say four medium sized steaks, many people enjoy buying and preparing smaller pieces of a variety of meats and fish, for example, so they can offer their own variety at home like is being done at the restaurants described in the Times' piece. Doing this also means more incremental sales for food retailers.

The examples go on, and extend throughout the store--and throughout the food manufacturing and marketing chain. In fact, we're starting to see a number of savvy food marketers already picking up on this trend. They're offering smaller and mini-versions of everything from fresh produce and prepared desserts, to frozen foods, pizza's, gourmet groceries and more.

In many ways this trend away from the larger, center-of-the-plate entree reflects the "less is more" flight to quality we're currently seeing in consumers. In other words, they would rather eat less of foods that are superior in quality and taste instead of having larger servings of mediocre foods. (We call this the "anti-belly-fill" phenomenon.)

Nowhere is this phenomenon being seen more so than in the natural and specialty foods categories. As we write often, there are numerous convergences going on between these two categories and sister industries. Chief among them is the combining of natural and organic product attributes with those of quality and premium taste. The melting away of the dinner entree is a good analogy to that trend in terms of diners' wanting to combine multiple premium tastes and variety into healthier-oriented meals.