Food Trends Memo: 'Let Them Eat Cupcakes:' Cupcakes Are So Popular They Even Beat Out 'Financial Crisis' Says Google Trends

Think American consumers are focused on the current financial crisis during these dark economic days of September?

You know, the financial crisis President George W. Bush, Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson, Presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain, and U.S. Congressional leaders of both parties are saying is so serious that if a $700 billion bailout package isn't passed immediately by Congress, signed by the President and implemented right away could, in the less than eloquent phrase uttered by President Bush at the end of the financial crisis summit meeting he held at the White House on Thursday, result in "This sucker (the U.S. economy) going down."

Think again.

Based on data from "Google Trends," the analytical tool provided by Google.com, which shows and ranks the most popular searches people are doing on Google, few Americans are "googling" the term "financial crisis" on the popular search engine

Mother Jones magazine was curious if Americans were going to Google in throngs in order to search and find out about the financial crisis which many serious people are saying could be the modern day version of the 1930's Great Depression, which was the most serious economic collapse in U.S. history.

Therefore, last Thursday Jonathan Stein of Mother Jones went to Google Trends and set the function's time period to September, 2008 to see what if anything Americans were searching for more than "financial crisis." By the way, anybody can use Google Trends. We do often.

And guess what writer Stein found Americans were far more interested in learning about in percentages far exceeding searches about the "financial crisis?"

The number one ranked search for September so far isn't the "financial crisis," nor even "economic crisis."

Rather, the overwhelmingly most popular search on Google thus far in September is for "cupcakes," that delicious mouth-sized cake treat that's been becoming one of the hottest food (and more specifically dessert) trends in the U.S. for the last few years.

As you can see in the chart at the top of this story, "cupcakes" (the gold-colored trend line), "sex toys" (green line) and "wizards" (reddish-brown line) are all overwhelmingly far more popular search terms on Google.com in September than "financial crisis" is.

In fact, according to Google Trends, Americans also are interested in the following topics, after the top three above, far more than they are in "financial crisis." Those topics are:

"Bristol Palin": searched for 17.5 times more often than "financial crisis" in September; "Puppies": 24.4 times more; "Vacation": 28.6 times more; "Fashion": 44 times more than "financial crisis"; "Fantasy Football": 44 times more "Baseball": 50.5 times more"; and Sex": searched 292 times more than "financial crisis."

If we recall our history correctly, a few century's ago the very aristocratic former Queen of France was reported to have said in response to a question about what her country should do during its time of severe economic crisis -- so severe in fact that the people were on the edge of revolt -- "Let them (the people) Eat Cake."

In the case of cupcakes and Google Trends' analysis, it appears that in this current financial and economic crisis in the United States, the desire to eat -- and learn more about cupcakes -- is a grass roots movement rather than a top-down dictatorial edict like the one given by Marie Antoinette, who met her fate at the receiving end of a guillotine.

This isn't the end of the story though.

Before you (readers) get bent out of shape about the intelligence and priorities of the American people -- cupcakes and wizards over financial crisis for example -- a Mother Jones reader points out in the comments section of the publication his theory for why "cupcakes" is so much more popular of a searched topic than "financial crisis."

Doing a little research on Google Trends himself, Andrew Hires says the reason "financial crisis" rates so far below cupcakes (and all the other topics we listed) is because Americans using Google are using the search term "bailout" to read and learn about the current financial mess instead of "financial crisis. Here's Mr. Hires' comment on Mother Jones:

"It's because they are all searching for the term "bailout". 5x the cupcakes rate."

http://www.google.com/trends?q=bailout%2C+financial+crisis%2C+cupcakes&ctab=0&geo=all&date=2008-9&sort=0

Posted by: Andrew Hires on 09/25/08 at 3:43 PM Respond

You will notice in his comment he provides a link to his Google Trends analysis, which does show "bailout" having five times the search trend rate than does "cupcakes."

We tend to agree with him on this. After all, most Americans know there is a financial crisis -- they don't need to look it up on Google. But what they are very interested and concerned about is the Bush Administration's proposed $700 billion "bailout" of the Wall-Street financial firms. Like the man once said about government: "Follow the money." For Americans "the money" (Their tax dollars) is in learning more about the proposed "bailout" rather than searching for generic information about the "financial crisis."

But with all this said, the fact American consumers are so interested in cupcakes is in and of itself a very interesting and potentially valuable piece of data.

If you are a supermarket chain vice-president or director of bakery, an in-store bakery category manager at a supermarket chain or independent, a bakery department manager in a supermarket, an executive of a bakery chain or the owner of a single bakery, or in the baked goods manufacturing business, the response to this information should be rather clear -- MORE cupcakes. Make more varieties, build more in-store bakery cupcake displays, cross merchandise cupcakes in other parts of the store, promote cupcakes...and more. Get on the great cupcake bandwagon, in other words.

It's clear Americans are very interested in cupcakes. We suggest those of you in the baked goods business, at whatever segment or level, make it easier for these very interested consumers to buy and eat more cupcakes.

We'll even suggest a sign to go with one of those in-store bakery cupcake displays we suggested above. That sign would have a picture of Democratic candidate for President Barack Obama on the left and a picture of his Republican challenger John McCain on the right; with an American flag pictured between them.

Below the pictures and the American flag, the text would read: "Let Them Eat Cupcakes."

And of course, the cupcakes being featured in the display would have three colors of frosting: red, white and blue.

After all, with a financial crisis in progress and the U.S. Presidential election just a little over a month away, consumers need a little food indulgence. (A little wizard and sex toy indulgence it appears as well, according to Google trends.)

Cupcakes can be a very comforting and affordable indulgence. They're sweet treats that don't do too much damage to either the pocketbook or the waistline.

And, as we now know, cupcakes are currently top-of-mind among many American consumers. In fact, we bet at least one or two of the shoppers among the many who will buy the cupcakes on that "Let Them Eat Cupcakes" in-store display will be among the millions who've searched "cupcakes" on Google.

Food Trends Memo: 'Green' Consumerism, the 'Greening' of the Food and Grocery Industry, and the Impending End of the Era of 'Cheap Food'

For the eight months or so we've been publishing Natural~Specialty Foods Memo (NSFM), we have suggested a number of overall themes in our writings as they relate to the natural and specialty foods (and general food and grocery) industries globally, and more particularly in the developed western world.

Two of these themes are that there's a "green" or environmental trend or movement coming from consumers from the bottom-up (grassroots), as well as from the private sector food and grocery industry, which is way ahead of the world's (especially the U.S.) respective national and local governments' environmental policies.

In terms of the consumer "green" movement or trend, it's evidenced by the perhaps slow but progressive changes we're observing in people, ranging from middle-class and upper middle-class consumers, to the more affluent. These environmental changes folks are making also are do in part to harsh economic realities, ranging from the soaring costs of gasoline and home energy fuels, to rising food prices.

For example, we've been observing a change in consumer car buying habits which include a shift from gas-guzzling SUV's to smaller, more energy efficient automobiles. This shift is most apparent in Western Europe (where smaller cars have always been more generally popular anyway) but also is occurring in the U.S., home of the SUV and muscle car.

Evidence of this purchasing behavior shift in the U.S. can be seen in automaker sales numbers: smaller car companies like Toyota and Honda are thriving for example, while SUV and big car makers GM and Ford are losing billions of dollars annually, and trying to retool their vehicle designs to smaller, more gas efficient car and truck models.

We also see a consumer "green" trend at the supermarket. Sales of organic and local food products are up by double-digits. Additionally, more and more shoppers are bringing their own reusable shopping bags with them to the store, rather than having their grocery purchases packed in single-use plastic or paper carrier bags. Further, surveys in Western Europe and the USA show more than 50% of consumers are for outright bans on the use of free plastic carrier bags at the supermarket, as well as packaging like disposable styrofoam take-out containers at in-store foodservice venues and at restaurants.

Other examples of this grassroots consumer "greening" include an increased concern by shoppers about the carbon footprints of the retail stores where they shop and of the manufacturers' who's products they buy. Increasingly, consumers are factoring in companies' environmental policies, as well as price and quality, when choosing a brand and spending their money for food, groceries and non-foods items.

The 'greening' of the food and grocery industry

Food and grocery manufacturers, marketers and retailers are increasingly noticing this gradual bottom-up consumer "greening," and responding to it. They're "greening" product packaging, food manufacturing plants and supply chains, among other environmentally responsible efforts.

Food and grocery retailers also are increasingly adding environmental improvements to their operations; some more so than others of course.

Among the "greening" trend at retail we're obviously seeing more and more retailers, including mid-range grocers, increasing the variety of natural, organic, sustainable and local food and grocery products they sell. The reason for their doing this isn't just do to increased consumer concern about eating healthier products, although that's key. It also has much to do with sustainability and other "green" consumer concerns as well.

Food and grocery retailers also are moving towards a stronger conservation and energy-reduction mind-set. Numerous U.S. retailers such as Wal-Mart, Target, Safeway Stores, Inc. and others are installing solar panels on the roofs of their stores and distribution centers. Others like Whole Foods Market, Inc. are combining solar panel installations with other energy-saving innovations like fuel cells. Still, others like Sainsbury's and Tesco in the UK are installing wind turbines in store parking lots as a way of providing 30 -to- 40% of a store's energy needs from a sustainable source.

The retail "greening" trend, which is in its infancy, is towards using more and more sustainable sources of energy like solar, wind and fuel cell technology to provide a percentage of power to supermarkets and distribution facilities.

Other green practices among food and grocery retailers include charging customers for free plastic grocery bags if they want one, like Marks & Spencer in the UK will soon begin doing, and like small-format discount grocer Aldi does in its stores throughout the world, including the nearly 900 it operates in the U.S.

Some retailers are going even further. Austin, Texas-based Whole Foods Market will stop using plastic grocery bags at its 270-plus stores in the U.S., Canada and the UK beginning on April 22, Earth Day.

Others, such as U.S. specialty grocer Trader Joe's, which is owned by Germany's Aldi, doesn't use plastic grocery bags at all in the majority of its 300-plus grocery markets in the U.S. Rather, Trader Joe's uses paper grocery sacks made from 100% post-consumer recycled paper only in the majority of its U.S. grocery stores, as well as selling reusable shopping totes for 99-cents each.

In fact, nearly every supermarket, from the most upscale to the most downscale, in the developed western world is selling reusable shopping carriers in its stores. Many grocery retailers also give shoppers a discount of anywhere from 5-cents -to- 10-cents-off per-reusable shopping bag they use at the store rather than having the store provide a free plastic or paper bag for the grocery orders.

Era of cheap food on the way out

The second theme we sound frequently in NSFM is that for the developed western world, and particularly for the U.S., the long, post World War II era of relatively "cheap" food is coming to an end.

As we mentioned, this is especially true for the United States, which has experienced about 60 years of relatively cheap food compared to the rest of the developed world. This era of cheap food, which Western Europe has experienced but to a lessor degree than the U.S., is do to three primary factors.

First, as part of the reforms to get the U.S. out of the Great Depression in the 1930's, the U.S. Federal Government enacted a serious of farm and crop subsidiary programs that would give taxpayer money to farmers, encouraging them to plant certain crops (wheat, corn, soybeans and rice, for example) for which they would be compensated for producing. These farm subsidies also lowered the retail prices of certain foodstuffs by tinkering with the market in a way that allowed products made with corn and wheat for example to sell for much less than they otherwise would without the government price guarantees.

These farm subsidy policies were stalled in the U.S. in the 1940's do to America's involvement in World War II. The costs of the war required food and fuel rationing in the U.S. because so much of the agricultural products and oil being produced at home was being sent abroad to fight the two wars in Europe and Asia.

However, the end of World War II signalled a new era in government crop and farm policy and subsidies in the U.S. And, as a result, Americans have been able to purchase and eat most food and grocery products for far lower prices than would be the case if these farm subsidies didn't exist.

Of course, not all foods are subsidized in the U.S. Fresh fruit and vegetable crop farmers receive very little if any government subsidy money for example. In fact, nearly 90% of all U.S. government farm payments go to growers of four crops: corn, rice, soybeans, cotton and wheat. In other words, it's no accident that the cheapest processed and packaged food and grocery products in U.S. supermarkets have three of these four farm commodities as their primary ingredients.

However, the U.S. and Western Europe are experiencing the highest levels of food inflation in decades. Commodities like corn, rice, soybeans and wheat are up by double-digit percentages this year, compared to last--and are continuing to increase. Milk, eggs and butter are up 20% this year over 2007. And, processed and packaged goods are up at retail ranging from 6 -to-15% this year over last.

Natural, sustainable, cruelty-free and organic food and grocery products have and are increasing at an even higher percentage rate. For example, free-range, organic eggs are up nearly 30% this year, compared to last. Organic Milk has seen a 30% rise in the last two years alone.

While it's true much of these dramatic increases in food costs across the board--from basic commodities, to upscale and organic foods--is do to the current economic downturn or recession in the U.S. and increasingly in Europe--that's far from the only cause. Nor, are increasing food and grocery costs a temporary phenomenon.

Rather, do to a number of factors--an increasing world population, diminishing farm land acreage, a growing movement to trim government crop subsidies, the use of commodities like corn in ethanol fuel production, and a few others--the era of "cheap" food is coming to an end.

Natural foods industry vets agree with both of our trend assessments

We aren't the only experienced food and grocery industry folks who make these two arguments: that there's a bottom-up "green" trend among consumers, as well as a "greening" trend occurring in the food and grocery industry which is ahead of government environmental policies; and that the era of "cheap" food in the developed, western world, especially in the U.S., is coming to an end.

Last week, Walter Robb, co-president of supernatural foods' retailer Whole Foods Market, Inc. and Gary Hirshberg, the president of organic foods' company Stonyfield Farms, echoed our themes about the grassroots and food industry "green" trends and that the era of "cheap" food is over, in talks they gave together to students at Iowa State University and Drake University, in the U.S. farm belt state of Iowa.

In terms of the impending end of the era of "cheap" food, Hirshberg said: "Every assumption we've made about agricultural policy, industrial policy, is now irrelevant." Robb was even stronger in his comments, saying: "The era of cheap food is over," according to David Elbert, the business editor for the Des Moines Register newspaper, who interviewed both natural products' industry veterans after their talks to the agriculture students.

Robb said the cost of food is rising on average at a rate of about 5-6% a year, and will continue to do so at those levels or higher. Both men said higher-priced oil is the cause in part of these soaring food costs. However, it's not the only reason.

Robb sighted another key factor (in agreement with us basically), which is the historic levels of farm crop subsidies for conventional food products and commodity crops. "Conventional food has been heavily subsidized with price supports to farmers and government research," he said. Robb believes, like we do, that will end. His argument primarily is that consumers will realize the benefits to them of such subsidies aren't what they expected and aren't worth it to them personally as taxpayers and consumers.

Regarding the costs versus the benefits of these government subsidy programs, both Hirshberg and Robb offer their analysis.

Hirshberg says many of the packaged food products made from the subsidised commodity crops are "empty calories." He adds: "Instead of building up the nutrients in the soil (because of the conventional commodity crop farming methods), we've synthesized nutrition from the soil."

Focusing on the U.S., Robb said: "Americans have been eating more but getting less, which is causing more obesity, juvenile diabetes and other health problems." His argument is empirically sound based on the soaring rates of obesity and diabetes in the U.S., which doctors and nutritionists attribute primarily to dietary factors.

Least you think Both natural foods industry veterans (or us) believe the ending of the era of "cheap" food means doom for the natural and organic foods industry, think again.

Both Robb and Hirshberg believe it actually will help the industry to grow. In addition, they both suggest the "greening" trend among consumers and by food and grocery industry companies is evidence in part of that fact.

They argue the two trends we've identified go hand-in-hand; that the consumer trend towards more healthier and environmentally sustainable foods and the impending ending of the era of "cheap" foods will serve the natural foods industry well. Both men say consumers are driving the green revolution and that will force corporations to be more sustainable. The natural products industry therefore is in the position to be the driving force in this change because its long been, and continues to be, the leader in sustainability and healthy foods.

Conclusion

The two themes we sound here often--the "greening" among consumers and in the food and grocery industry, along with the impending end of the era of "cheap" food--aren't just ours alone, or merely shared by Mr. Robb and Mr. Hirshberg.

For example, we just finished reading a transcript of a recent symposium held by the Agricultural Policy Issues Center at the University of California at Davis, which is one of the top agricultural and food research centers in the world. A major theme of the participants' in that conference was that the era of "cheap" food is coming to an end, especially in the developed western world, and particularly in the U.S.

Additionally, this topic is currently high on the agenda at meetings of farmers and policy makers at farm and agricultural trade associations throughout the world. It's also a hot topic of discussion in the executive suites of global agriculture and food corporations like Monsanto and Archer Daniels Midland Corp., as well as in the offices of medium-sized and small natural and organic foods' companies.

We agree with Robb and Hirshberg that the natural foods industry could benefit--and certainly won't be hurt by--the era of "cheap" foods' impending end. However, "cheap" is a relative term. The fact is, current retail prices of many natural and organic foods products are just out of reach for the average family to purchase primarily or regularly.

We also don't believe government crop subsidies in the U.S. will go away anytime soon, although we suggest the cost of food will continue to go up at far-higher than historic average rates even with these subsidies in place. (Imagine the increases if they were removed?) In fact, the current U.S. farm bill, which looks like it will pass with a few changes, actually increases commodity subsidies, and for the first time gives some fresh fruit, vegetable and nut growers subsidies on certain crops.

However, we do agree that the long-term trend will be to decrease such subsidies, especially in the land of debt, the U.S. If not, in order to pay for them--along with a host of other things like war, Medicare, Social Security and other social programs and financial institution bailouts--the future U.S President and Congress will have to raise taxes, which doesn't seem politically tenable at the present time. There's really no other solution under current U.S. government spending levels.

In terms of the natural foods industry, we suggest it needs to try to reduce the current retail costs of natural and organic food products--or at least contain the increases--if the industry is going to truly benefit (many) consumers. [Keep in mind that many consumers already are having a difficult time being able to pay for that "cheap," subsidized food which is currently increasing at double-digit rates.]

A key goal of the natural foods industry--in addition to its already laudable ones of producing and selling cleaner, healthier and more sustainably-grown foods--needs to be attempting to be more inclusive as well. By this we mean doing everything economically possible (including perhaps a bit of retail margin reduction) to make natural and organic food and grocery products more affordable so that more lower -to- middle-income consumers can afford to regularly buy natural and organic food and grocery products.

We realize this isn't easy, especially in today's food inflation climate. We do argue however that it's a worthy goal, right alongside of the healthier and more sustainable ones, that the industry should work hard to achieve, from the organic farm to the supernatural food store.

Food Trends Memo: Air-Chilled Chickens Could Become 'Hot' in the U.S.

In the world of chicken processing, marketing and sales, it seems what's now being air-chilled also is becoming a potentially hot commodity, so to speak.

A number of upscale grocers in the U.S. have recently started selling air-chilled chickens, which the retailers' say taste better than water-cooled birds. Air-chilled, water-cooled? It sounds more like a car motor than a chicken, doesn't it?

Perhaps a little background is in order: The traditional method of "cooling" chickens in the U.S. poultry industry is to immerse the bird in chlorinated ice water after it's been slaughtered. Within four hours after a chicken is slaughtered, the USDA requires processors to get the bird's carcass temperature down to 40 degrees in order to reduce the bacteria level in the chicken. This generally takes about an hour in the chlorinated ice water bath. Multiple chickens are water-bathed at the same time.

By contrast, air-chilling which has been used in Western Europe for at least 45 years, cools chickens after slaughter by blasting them with cold air. After the birds are slaughtered, they are sprayed with chlorinated water inside and out. Then they are whisked one at a time down a one-mile track through a chamber, where they're misted with blasts of cold air. Both chilling methods are designed to reduce bacteria in the birds after they're slaughtered.

Numerous supermarkets and butcher shops in Western Europe have sold the air-chilled birds for decades, and air-chilling has been used by poultry processors in the region for about 45 years However, the concept has only recently been implemented by a handful of poultry processors in the U.S., which is why until now it was near-impossible to buy a non-ice water-cooled chicken in America.

But, as we said above, that's changing. Whole Foods Market, Inc. is the leader in offering air-chilled chickens for sale in the U.S. in fact, even though 99% of the chickens slaughtered and processed in the U.S. are still cooled the old fashion way, by dunking the dead bird in a huge tub of ice water, the Supernatural grocer has decided to eventually convert most of its full-service meat counters in its U.S. stores to sell only air-chilled chicken.

First up for Whole Foods' are its Northern California division stores. The grocer is in the process of changing-over the full-service meat cases in all of its 25 stores in the region so that soon only air-chilled chickens will be sold in them. The air-chilled birds are being sold in a number of Whole Foods' San Francisco Bay Area stores already, with the remaining stores set to begin doing so soon. Whole Foods' stores are selling the air-chilled chickens for $2.49 pound.

Another upscale San Francisco Bay Area-based grocer, Andronico's Markets, which operates eight supermarkets in the region, just last week started carrying the air-chilled chickens in all of its stores' full-service meat cases.

Proponents of air-chilled chicken argue that among other things, the simple fact you are getting a chicken without the water added from the time spent in the cold water dip makes the method--and thus the resulting bird--preferable to them. (Both methods use chlorinated water. However, in the air-chilled method the water is just misted inside and outside the chicken before it's air-chilled. In the water bath method, the bird is plunged into the chlorinated water for about an hour.)

The three main arguments the proponents of air-chilled chicken site as to why they believe its superior to ice water-cooled chicken are: safety, flavor and texture.

Safety

Since air-chilled chickens are handled separately rather than together, which is the case with ice water-dipped bids who share a communal bathtub, pro air-chilled advocates argue they contain less bacteria from cross-contamination. The results of studies comparing the two methods and bacteria levels are mixed however.

For example, a study at the University of Nebraska in 2000 concluded that 350 air-chilled chickens had about 20% less bacteria than the same number of ice water-cooled birds did. The study examined only one air-chilled poultry processing plant and one water-cooled plant however.

However, last month Consumer Reports found that of 28 chickens they bought in a supermarket for the test, five had salmonella and 19 has campylobacter, another form of bacteria sometimes present in raw chicken. Both forms of bacteria can cause illness. However, the bacteria strains can be killed by cooking the chicken to an internal temperature of at least 165 degrees.

Lastly, a study published last year in the Journal of Food Protection concluded that both air-chilling and ice water-bathing worked equally in reducing bacteria in processed chickens. In other words, the researchers reported that one method wasn't better than the other from a food safety perspective.

Flavor and Texture

Pro air-chilled advocates believe the birds' taste more natural and less artificial than ice water-dipped birds do. the supporters' primary taste argument is that because air-chilled birds aren't soaked in water, they don't absorb water like the ice water submerged chickens do. As a result, the air-chilled proponents say the air cooling method leaves the real or natural taste of the chicken undiluted.

the air-chilled supporters have some scientific evidence on their side in this argument. Numerous studies have shown that ice water-chilled chicken absorbs from 2% -to- 12% of its weight on average in added moisture. According to a number of food scientists, that moisture ends up in the chickens skin, which they suggest results in a less-crisp cooked chicken. This scientific evidence is backed up by practical evidence from professional chefs. Many of them prefer to use air-chilled chickens, especially for roasting, because they say the end result is a bird with far crisper skin and better color.

Air-chilled chicken in its infancy in U.S.

Although the air-chilled method has been popular with poultry processors in Western Europe for at least four decades, only a handful of companies are using the method in the U.S.

Nebraska-based MBA Smart Chicken was the first poultry processor in the USA to employ the air-chilled method in 1998. A few other companies have followed the poultry company's lead, but it's still a tiny, niche market.

Pitman Farms, a small poultry company based in Fresno, California, started air-chilling some of its chickens two years ago and has created a strong and growing niche market for the non-ice water-bathed birds.

The Fresno poultry processors' air-chilled chicken brand, "Mary's Air-Chilled Chicken," is being sold at Southern California Whole Foods stores, the Andronico's chain mentioned above, and at numerous upscale multi and single store independent supermarkets, and at some natural foods stores, in California. About half of Pitman Farms' chickens are currently processed using the air-chilled method. The other 50% are ice water-bathed.

Southern California's gourmet grocery chain Bristol Farms, which is owned by SuperValu, Inc., is selling the company's birds under its own store brand at all of its stores in the Southern California region and at its one store in Northern California, in San Francisco.

In fact, Bristol Farms recently stopped selling water-cooled birds altogether in its stores, and is now offering only air-chilled varieties. Other food retailers such as the Wegmans chain in the eastern United States and HEB in Texas are selling the air-chilled chickens, as well as the traditional ice water-bathed birds, in some of their stores.

Air-chilling and the bird of the future

The history of chicken raising, processing and marketing in the U.S. is an interesting one. Not all that long ago, most chickens were raised locally and free-range-style. (The term free-range would have been redundant then.) Additionally, the birds were raised cage-free (another redundant term then), and fed a primarily pesticide-free, hormone-free and antibiotic-free diet.

However, when chicken raising and processing became a big business, and "factory-style" poultry farming was invented, the birds' began being raised in cages and were fed a formulated diet of grain grown using pesticides, fungicides and synthetic fertilizer. Further, the chickens were fed antibiotics to minimize disease and given hormones to plump then up fast.

Then, beginning in the late 1960's and 1970's a "back to the future" poultry farming movement began. A few small farmers began raising the birds the old fashion way again. Then in the 1980's, the organic chicken movement began gaining steam, first with small farmers and processors, then eventually among a number of larger firms. Free-range chicken farming started taking hold about that time as well.

By the 1990's, organic, all-natural and free-range chickens were marketed by numerous companies and offered for sale by many supermarkets in the U.S. The trend has grown by double-digits each year since the early 1990's. Today, even middle-range supermarkets generally sell at least one brand of organic chicken. Further, most upscale grocers and natural foods stores sell organic, hormone-free, antibiotic-free, free-range chickens in their stores.

We see the trend towards more grocers selling air-chilled birds increasing. These chickens will be raised the traditional way but air-chilled rather than ice water-cooled.

We also see marketers who sell the no-drug, no-hormone, organic, free-range birds adding air-chilled to those birds' pedigree. It will be another selling (and perhaps food safety and flavor) point, along with the other attributes listed above. The latter is the emerging trend we are seeing at Whole Foods, Bristol Farms, Andronicos, Wegmans and others.

The state of the bird: The current U.S. fresh chicken market

Organic, free-range and air-chilled chickens currently only comprise about 1% of the total fresh chicken market in the U.S. The remaining 99% is comprised of traditionally-raised and processed--including ice water bathed--birds. However, within that majority, there is a growing trend towards chickens raised without the use of antibiotics and hormones.

There's also a trend among U.S. consumers to buy traditionally raised chickens that have no water or other broths added. Some marketers do this as a way to add volume to the bird. It's a completely separate process from the bacteria-killing bathing or air-chilling.

The USDA allows companies to add a certain percentage of water, broth and even seaweed extracts to fresh poultry and still call the chicken "all natural." Essentially, this practice, which we call "juicing," allows poultry firms to get more bang (profit) for the bird. It serves no needed food safety or other purpose.

A group of U.S. poultry companies, which don't add any liquids to their respective chickens, is currently lobbying the U.S. Congress to change this law so that companies who add the water and other liquids to the birds will no longer be able to use the term "all natural" on the "juiced" chickens' labels. The California Poultry Federation, which is leading the campaign, says its fine for the companies to add water, broths and seaweed extract to the birds if they choose to. However, they shouldn't be able to label the "unnatural" birds "all natural," the group is arguing. [You can read a piece we wrote on January 22, 'Juiced Chickens That Wear an All Natural label,' here.]

Whole Foods' in Northern California says its seeing growing popularity among shoppers for the air-chilled chickens in its stores where the grocer has thus far introduced the birds. The air-chilled chickens were just introduced in February, and the supernatural grocer says it is already seeing about a 15% increase in sales over the previous month, as customers learn more about the air-chilled process. Of course, there is the "newness factor" as well,which we expect accounts for some of that sales gain. Air-chilled just sounds better, healthier and tastier than water-cooled, don't you think?

We suspect air-chilled chicken will remain a niche--likely a smaller one than organic and perhaps even smaller than free-range. However, many chefs in Western Europe and increasingly in the U.S., use the air-chilled chickens as much as they can, primarily because they argue the birds' skin roasts to a nicer crispness and color and that the chicken itself tastes better than the traditional water-bathed birds do.

Whether these chefs could really tell the taste differences between the two--air-chilled vs., water-cooled-- in a blind tasting we don't know. However, we do believe if celebrity chefs such as those on the Food Network and elsewhere start talking up air-chilled birds, we will see a rapid increase in the sales of the chickens, and perhaps even the start of a faster-growing fresh chicken niche marketing trend.