Food Trends Memo: 'Let Them Eat Cupcakes:' Cupcakes Are So Popular They Even Beat Out 'Financial Crisis' Says Google Trends

Think American consumers are focused on the current financial crisis during these dark economic days of September?

You know, the financial crisis President George W. Bush, Secretary of the Treasury Henry Paulson, Presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain, and U.S. Congressional leaders of both parties are saying is so serious that if a $700 billion bailout package isn't passed immediately by Congress, signed by the President and implemented right away could, in the less than eloquent phrase uttered by President Bush at the end of the financial crisis summit meeting he held at the White House on Thursday, result in "This sucker (the U.S. economy) going down."

Think again.

Based on data from "Google Trends," the analytical tool provided by Google.com, which shows and ranks the most popular searches people are doing on Google, few Americans are "googling" the term "financial crisis" on the popular search engine

Mother Jones magazine was curious if Americans were going to Google in throngs in order to search and find out about the financial crisis which many serious people are saying could be the modern day version of the 1930's Great Depression, which was the most serious economic collapse in U.S. history.

Therefore, last Thursday Jonathan Stein of Mother Jones went to Google Trends and set the function's time period to September, 2008 to see what if anything Americans were searching for more than "financial crisis." By the way, anybody can use Google Trends. We do often.

And guess what writer Stein found Americans were far more interested in learning about in percentages far exceeding searches about the "financial crisis?"

The number one ranked search for September so far isn't the "financial crisis," nor even "economic crisis."

Rather, the overwhelmingly most popular search on Google thus far in September is for "cupcakes," that delicious mouth-sized cake treat that's been becoming one of the hottest food (and more specifically dessert) trends in the U.S. for the last few years.

As you can see in the chart at the top of this story, "cupcakes" (the gold-colored trend line), "sex toys" (green line) and "wizards" (reddish-brown line) are all overwhelmingly far more popular search terms on Google.com in September than "financial crisis" is.

In fact, according to Google Trends, Americans also are interested in the following topics, after the top three above, far more than they are in "financial crisis." Those topics are:

"Bristol Palin": searched for 17.5 times more often than "financial crisis" in September; "Puppies": 24.4 times more; "Vacation": 28.6 times more; "Fashion": 44 times more than "financial crisis"; "Fantasy Football": 44 times more "Baseball": 50.5 times more"; and Sex": searched 292 times more than "financial crisis."

If we recall our history correctly, a few century's ago the very aristocratic former Queen of France was reported to have said in response to a question about what her country should do during its time of severe economic crisis -- so severe in fact that the people were on the edge of revolt -- "Let them (the people) Eat Cake."

In the case of cupcakes and Google Trends' analysis, it appears that in this current financial and economic crisis in the United States, the desire to eat -- and learn more about cupcakes -- is a grass roots movement rather than a top-down dictatorial edict like the one given by Marie Antoinette, who met her fate at the receiving end of a guillotine.

This isn't the end of the story though.

Before you (readers) get bent out of shape about the intelligence and priorities of the American people -- cupcakes and wizards over financial crisis for example -- a Mother Jones reader points out in the comments section of the publication his theory for why "cupcakes" is so much more popular of a searched topic than "financial crisis."

Doing a little research on Google Trends himself, Andrew Hires says the reason "financial crisis" rates so far below cupcakes (and all the other topics we listed) is because Americans using Google are using the search term "bailout" to read and learn about the current financial mess instead of "financial crisis. Here's Mr. Hires' comment on Mother Jones:

"It's because they are all searching for the term "bailout". 5x the cupcakes rate."

http://www.google.com/trends?q=bailout%2C+financial+crisis%2C+cupcakes&ctab=0&geo=all&date=2008-9&sort=0

Posted by: Andrew Hires on 09/25/08 at 3:43 PM Respond

You will notice in his comment he provides a link to his Google Trends analysis, which does show "bailout" having five times the search trend rate than does "cupcakes."

We tend to agree with him on this. After all, most Americans know there is a financial crisis -- they don't need to look it up on Google. But what they are very interested and concerned about is the Bush Administration's proposed $700 billion "bailout" of the Wall-Street financial firms. Like the man once said about government: "Follow the money." For Americans "the money" (Their tax dollars) is in learning more about the proposed "bailout" rather than searching for generic information about the "financial crisis."

But with all this said, the fact American consumers are so interested in cupcakes is in and of itself a very interesting and potentially valuable piece of data.

If you are a supermarket chain vice-president or director of bakery, an in-store bakery category manager at a supermarket chain or independent, a bakery department manager in a supermarket, an executive of a bakery chain or the owner of a single bakery, or in the baked goods manufacturing business, the response to this information should be rather clear -- MORE cupcakes. Make more varieties, build more in-store bakery cupcake displays, cross merchandise cupcakes in other parts of the store, promote cupcakes...and more. Get on the great cupcake bandwagon, in other words.

It's clear Americans are very interested in cupcakes. We suggest those of you in the baked goods business, at whatever segment or level, make it easier for these very interested consumers to buy and eat more cupcakes.

We'll even suggest a sign to go with one of those in-store bakery cupcake displays we suggested above. That sign would have a picture of Democratic candidate for President Barack Obama on the left and a picture of his Republican challenger John McCain on the right; with an American flag pictured between them.

Below the pictures and the American flag, the text would read: "Let Them Eat Cupcakes."

And of course, the cupcakes being featured in the display would have three colors of frosting: red, white and blue.

After all, with a financial crisis in progress and the U.S. Presidential election just a little over a month away, consumers need a little food indulgence. (A little wizard and sex toy indulgence it appears as well, according to Google trends.)

Cupcakes can be a very comforting and affordable indulgence. They're sweet treats that don't do too much damage to either the pocketbook or the waistline.

And, as we now know, cupcakes are currently top-of-mind among many American consumers. In fact, we bet at least one or two of the shoppers among the many who will buy the cupcakes on that "Let Them Eat Cupcakes" in-store display will be among the millions who've searched "cupcakes" on Google.

Food & Economy Memo USA: It's No April Fools' Day Joke; Brit Paper 'The Independent' Declares 'USA 2008: The Great Depression'

Tuesday, April 1

Natural~Specialty Foods Memo Editor's Note: Yes, today is April Fools' Day, that day when everybody becomes a practical joker for at least a few hours.

However, the banner headline--"USA 2008: The Great Depression"--and the story below which is published in this morning's United Kingdom-based The Independent newspaper is no joke. It's very real, even though the paper chose to publish it on April Fools Day.

USA 2008: The Great Depression

Food stamps are the symbol of poverty in the US. In the era of the credit crunch, a record 28 million Americans are now relying on them to survive – a sure sign the world's richest country faces economic crisis

By David Usborn in New York, The Independent

Tuesday, 1 April, 2008

We knew things were bad on Wall Street, but on Main Street it may be worse. Startling official statistics show that as a new economic recession stalks the United States, a record number of Americans will shortly be depending on food stamps just to feed themselves and their families.

Dismal projections by the Congressional Budget Office in Washington suggest that in the fiscal year starting in October, 28 million people in the US will be using government food stamps to buy essential groceries, the highest level since the food assistance programme was introduced in the 1960s.

The increase – from 26.5 million in 2007 – is due partly to recent efforts to increase public awareness of the programme and also a switch from paper coupons to electronic debit cards. But above all it is the pressures being exerted on ordinary Americans by an economy that is suddenly beset by troubles. Housing foreclosures, accelerating jobs losses and fast-rising prices all add to the squeeze.

Emblematic of the downturn until now has been the parades of houses seized in foreclosure all across the country, and myriad families separated from their homes. But now the crisis is starting to hit the country in its gut. Getting food on the table is a challenge many Americans are finding harder to meet. As a barometer of the country's economic health, food stamp usage may not be perfect, but can certainly tell a story.

Michigan has been in its own mini-recession for years as its collapsing industrial base, particularly in the car industry, has cast more and more out of work. Now, one in eight residents of the state is on food stamps, double the level in 2000. "We have seen a dramatic increase in recent years, but we have also seen it climbing more in recent months," Maureen Sorbet, a spokeswoman for Michigan's programme, said. "It's been increasing steadily. Without the programme, some families and kids would be going without."

But the trend is not restricted to the rust-belt regions. Forty states are reporting increases in applications for the stamps, actually electronic cards that are filled automatically once a month by the government and are swiped by shoppers at the till, in the 12 months from December 2006. At least six states, including Florida, Arizona and Maryland, have had a 10 per cent increase in the past year.

In Rhode Island, the segment of the population on food stamps has risen by 18 per cent in two years. The food programme started 40 years ago when hunger was still a daily fact of life for many Americans. The recent switch from paper coupons to the plastic card system has helped remove some of the stigma associated with the food stamp programme. The card can be swiped as easily as a bank debit card. To qualify for the cards, Americans do not have to be exactly on the breadline. The programme is available to people whose earnings are just above the official poverty line. For Hubert Liepnieks, the card is a lifeline he could never afford to lose. Just out of prison, he sleeps in overnight shelters in Manhattan and uses the card at a Morgan Williams supermarket on East 23rd Street. Yesterday, he and his fiancée, Christine Schultz, who is in a wheelchair, shared one banana and a cup of coffee bought with the 82 cents left on it.

"They should be refilling it in the next three or four days," Liepnieks says. At times, he admits, he and friends bargain with owners of the smaller grocery shops to trade the value of their cards for cash, although it is illegal. "It can be done. I get $7 back on $10."

Richard Enright, the manager at this Morgan Williams, says the numbers of customers on food stamps has been steady but he expects that to rise soon. "In this location, it's still mostly old people and people who have retired from city jobs on stamps," he says. Food stamp money was designed to supplement what people could buy rather than covering all the costs of a family's groceries. But the problem now, Mr Enright says, is that soaring prices are squeezing the value of the benefits.

"Last St Patrick's Day, we were selling Irish soda bread for $1.99. This year it was $2.99. Prices are just spiralling up, because of the cost of gas trucking the food into the city and because of commodity prices. People complain, but I tell them it's not my fault everything is more expensive."

The US Department of Agriculture says the cost of feeding a low-income family of four has risen 6 per cent in 12 months. "The amount of food stamps per household hasn't gone up with the food costs," says Dayna Ballantyne, who runs a food bank in Des Moines, Iowa. "Our clients are finding they aren't able to purchase food like they used to."

And the next monthly job numbers, to be released this Friday, are likely to show 50,000 more jobs were lost nationwide in March, and the unemployment rate is up to perhaps 5 per cent.