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Natural~Specialty Foods Memo: News, Analysis, Insight and Opinion
First off, Whole Foods has only been integrating the Wild Oats stores into its retailing system for about a month. Some Wild Oats stores are being rebranded as Whole Foods stores, others are being closed, a number still have the Wild Oats banner, and some are even getting new names, like a former Wild Oats store in Boulder, Colorado (Wild Oats' former corporate headquarters), which Whole Foods has rebranded as Alfalfa's Market, a name the grocer obtained the rights to in the acquisition. (Alfalfa's was a popular Boulder-based chain of natural foods stores that Wild Oats acquired in the 1990's.)
Second, Whole Foods has told its stockholders it plans on changing most if not all of the Wild Oats banner stores remaining to the Whole Foods banner--and a few more to banners like Alfalfa's when it makes marketing sense. Public corporations aren't likely to tell their shareholders facts like this unless they mean it. There's no upside to doing so for Whole Foods. Lastly, even if Whole Foods keeps a number of stores under the Wild Oats banner, so what. Food retailers create and eliminate store banners/brands all the time. The Wild Oats brand is intellectual property Whole Foods acquired in the merger and we see nothing wrong with them using the name in any manner the grocer sees fit to do.
We don't understand how still having stores operating under the Wild Oats banner is evidence of anti-competitive behavior or "price raising," which are the FTC's chief arguments from an anti-trust perspective against the merger. Is the FTC saying Whole Foods' continuing to operate stores under the Wild Oats banner is part of a master plan by the grocer to acquire its rival but keep stores under its name because they believe they can control the category by having both? Doesn't make since. Wouldn't work if the grocer wanted it to.
Let's examine the logic (or lack thereof) of the FTC's argument. First, the FTC is saying Whole Foods already is a monopolist because of the merger. As such store names should hardly matter. Second, Most companies pay a premium in an acquisition because of the brand equity a company offers. In fact, seldom does an acquiring company eliminate the brands it obtains in a acquisition at all. Therefore, the FTC argument just doesn't make much sense. And it surely isn't the basis for an new appeal in our view. We asked for some elaboration from the FTC but they aren't commenting on the appeal; not even to the New York Times and Wall Street Journal, according to editors at both papers.
Whole Foods Market, Inc. has filed a motion, asking the D.C. appellate court to dismiss the FTC case as moot because the two companies (Whole Foods and Wild Oats) completed the merger transaction on August 28, 2007 after being given the green light from the federal court. The FTC is asking the appellate court for an expedited review. Most anti-trust lawyers are saying the appeal is considered a long shot. We agree.
We also think this dog is long dead and that the FTC should spend its time on more productive and important endeavors. The natural, organic and premium food and grocery industries are moving so fast, and are far too dynamic, for Whole Foods to gain a monopoly. There are far too many retail formats--with more coming online seemingly every month--to allow Whole Foods to stifle competition and raise retail prices on category products in any significant way.
Additionally, Whole Foods has an organized consumer opposition movement that refers to the grocer as "Whole Paycheck," among other negative epitaphs. Should the grocer raise its retail prices more than a couple percentage points at any one time, based on the natural increases in cost of goods, inflation and the like, it will find itself with an "anti Wal-Mart type" opposition movement, which is the last thing Whole Foods wants, especially post the Wild Oats acquisition. In other words we think the market as it is at present will be an strong enough check on Whole Foods' retail pricing behavior.
Does Whole Foods benefit having acquired Wild Oats? Yes. Does the grocer benefit to the extent it will allow it to be a monopolist? No. Whole Foods now owns the supernatural retailing category. We have no doubt of that. However, the point is that there are plenty of other retail formats--upscale national, regional and independent supermarket chains, mass merchandisers like Wal-Mart and Target, Trader Joe's and the many similar specialty grocers in the U.S., and more--where natural, organic and premium foods and grocery products can be purchased by consumers. Whole Foods may own the supernatural retailing category, but it doesn't own anywhere near the exclusivity in retail sales of products in these categories.
In fact, the supernatural retailing category is slowely blurring and going away. Why? Two reasons. First, the channel-blurring between natural foods supernatural stores, supermarkets, mass merchandisers, specialty grocers and others who sell natural and organic foods is making the supernatural category less relevant. In the past, when the only places a shopper could find natural and organic foods was at Whole Foods, Wild Oats or other natural foods stores, the category had meaning. Since that's no longer the case today--you can even buy a limited assortment of natural and organic foods at drug stores and traditional convenience stores--the entire concept of the supernatural category is being turned on its head and being rendered less meaningless and significant.
Second, the retail food industry is constantly evolving. New formats like Tesco's Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Markets (upscale, convenience-oriented grocery markets featuring fresh, prepared foods and natural, organic, basic and specialty groceries), Trader Joe's new larger stores with more fresh natural and organic foods, H.E.B's huge new 112,000 square-foot Cypress Market banner (which carries as many natural and organic groceries as a Whole Foods store), Safeway Stores Lifestyle format (which is evolving into a Whole Foods-like store but with basic groceries as well), and many others, are constantly redefining food retailing.
In an industry as fast moving as natural, organic and premium food marketing and retailing, there really isn't much time for a retailer like a Whole Foods to become a monopoly. The fact is, only a month or so after the merger, Whole Foods is already looking over its shoulder at the food retailers mentioned above, and many others. It's a dynamic industry. And the next hot format (or more likely format combinations) could change the retail landscape considerably.
Whole Foods also is considerably smaller than most supermarket and mass merchandising chains that sell natural, organic and premium foods. Safeway, Kroger and Supervalue, for example, are five to six times the size of Whole Foods in terms of gross sales and store count. H.E.B., Publix, Wegmans (and a number of others), all upscale grocery chains and major players in the natural and organic grocery retail space, are two to three times bigger than Whole Foods in terms of annual sales. And Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer and a major player in natural and organic grocery sales, does over $300 billion in annual sales with stores located globally, compared to Whole Foods annual sales of about $6.5 billion.
As these huge, major food retailers (and numerous others) move more and more into natural and organic grocery retailing, as they're doing, it would be a big mistake to discount the notion that Whole Foods itself might become a takeover target. We don't think an acquisition offer or hostile attempt is on the radar screens of these mega-food retailers now or in the near future for a number of reasons. However, it's potential isn't lost on them (or not discussed behin closed doors). Nor is the potential of either a friendly or not so friendly acquisition lost on Whole Foods' management.
On Friday, October 19 we reported here that Tesco had secured its first store location in Northern California in the Bay Area city of San Jose. That store will be located in a former Albertsons supermarket building in San Jose's Willow Glen district.
According to commercial real estate and municipal official sources we talked to, Tesco will completely renovate the building to decrease it's square-footage and make it suitable for its 10,000 to 13,000 square-foot Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market format. These sources also told us plans call for the store to open in the summer of 2008.
Talking with the same and additional sources in the San Francisco Bay Area yesterday (10-26), we learned Tesco is aggressively looking for Fresh & Easy store sights throughout the nine-county Bay Area (including in San Francisco), as well as in other Northern California regions and in the Central Valley, which is located mid-way between Southern California and Northern California.
In addition to the San Jose location, which is a done deal according to our sources, Tesco has inquired with the East Bay Area city of Danville's Economic Development Department about possibly locating a Fresh & Easy store in that city's Green Valley Shopping Center. The shopping center in the upscale, high-income community, is currently without an anchor retail food store since an Albertsons supermarket closed there in 2006.
Jill Bergman, Danville's economic development director, recently said Tesco has talked to her about tenant improvements to the center's vacant Albertsons store but hasn't filed any applications regarding the store as of yet. Commercial real estate sources also told us Tesco has been talking with the building's owner and shopping center representatives about locating a Fresh & Easy store there.
Our commercial real estate sources also told us Tesco is busy looking in other cities in the East Bay Area, including Pleasanton, Livermore, Walnut Creek, Concord and others. They also told us Tesco is interested in a number of other empty Albertsons store buildings in that region as well as in the South Bay Area, where San Jose is, and the San Francisco Peninsula county of San Mateo.
A commercial real estate agent in San Francisco told us he recently talked to a business associate who said Tesco representatives told him they plan on opening more than one Fresh & Easy store in the city of San Francisco if they can find suitable locations in the dense, urban city.
The Bay Area and other Northern California regions aren't the only areas north of Southern California where Tesco is aggressively looking to locate store locations for its Fresh & Easy convenience-oriented grocery markets.
Last week, the Bakersfield Californian newspaper reported that Tesco is in serious negotiations with a property management firm to locate a Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market in Southwest Bakersfield, at a shopping center at White Lane and Buena Vista Road, south of the city's Stockdale High School.
Bakersfield is located in the center of California in Kern County, about a 100 miles from Los Angeles to the south, and about 250 miles from Sacramento to the north. Tesco wants to locate the store at that particular location and has a zoning change application before the Bakersfield City Council. The change of zoning would allow retail food stores to locate in the shopping center (which currently isn't the case for some reason) and pave the way for the Fresh & Easy store there, according to the newspaper report.
Natural~Specialty Foods Memo's Analysis:
If Tesco moves aggressively into Northern California--which we believe it will based on our information and analysis--it will add an interesting competitive twist to food retailing in the region, especially in the Bay Area, which currently is home to about seven million residents.
Safeway Stores, Inc. has its U.S. corporate headquarters in the Easy Bay Area city of Pleasanton and is the food retailing market share leader in the nine-county Bay Area. Recently, Safeway has been opening up very upscale versions of its "Lifestyle" format Safeway banner stores in the Bay Area. These new stores average about 45,000 to 65,000 square-feet in size and feature numerous prepared foods offerings, including in-store restaurants, cafes with fresh baked goods and gourmet coffee, wine departments with tasting bars, gourmet olive bars, and other upscale features. Huge selections of specialty and natural groceries and expansive fresh produce departments also are part of the mix in these stores.
Whole Foods Market, Inc. also is a major upscale player in the Bay Area with about 21 stores at present. The retailer has opened three new, large natural foods lifestyle-oriented supermarkets in just the last two months, with more new stores on the way. The supernatural grocer plans to built at least 21 new stores in the next 3-5 years in the Bay Area. Upscale quality, prepared foods are a major feature in Whole Foods' Bay Area stores, like they are in Tesco's Fresh & Easy format stores.
The Bay Area also is home to numerous upscale multi-store and single store independent retailers. Many of these grocers have been national pioneers in upscale, natural and specialty foods retailing. Among these independents are Mollie Stones Markets, Andronico's, Lunardi's, Draeger's, Cosentino's, Zanotto's, Berkeley Bowl, and a number of others. All offer high quality prepared foods in their stores, which are collectively located all over the nine-county Bay Area.
Tesco's Fresh & Easy format has some major differences from these upscale supermarket and supernatural foods retailers however, despite the fact that prepared foods play a major positioning point in what all of them do. First, the Fresh & Easy format is smaller--about 10,000 square-feet--and designed to bridge the gap between huge superstores and traditional convenience stores.
Second, It's upscale, but also offers basic groceries and non-foods offerings. Fresh & Easy stores also will have fresh produce and meats, perishables of all kinds and other offerings one would expect in a neighborhood grocery store. This helps them in that they can supply basic needs to shoppers (like all the supermarkets mentioned above do) and not become just a tertiary retailer in the region.
Lastly, Fresh & Easy is non-union. All of the major supermarket chains and independents in the Bay Area (except Whole Foods and Wal-Mart) are union shops. The average retail clerk, with one year's full time experience (journey level), makes about $20.00 per hour in wages and has a full health benefits package which adds another $10-$12.00 an hour to their compensation in terms of the high-quality value of their benefits package.
However, like Whole Foods and Wal-Mart (which has only a handful of Supercenters in the region), Tesco's Fresh & Easy will be a non-union shop. With the exception of management staff, all of the retail associates in the Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market stores set to open in Southern California, Nevada and Arizona, will be part-time. They will work at least 20 hours a week and no more than about 35 hours a week. Their average salary will be $10.00 hour, according to Tesco. Fresh & Easy store's part-time associates will have a health care policy but it will be nowhere near as good as what the unionized supermarket retail clerks have. In fact, the union retail clerks health policy is one of the best in the U.S.
We suspect Tesco to basically try to maintain their current employment policy and wage structure for Northern California, although the retailer likely will have to increase the hourly wage by at least two or three dollars an hour in order to attract employees in the Bay Area, which has a very low unemployment rate, and was recently ranked number one as the region with the highest salaries in the U.S. The Bay Area is a much more competitive labor market than Southern California, Nevada and Arizona are.
Even if Tesco has to pay two, three or four dollars an hour more, it's still at an advantage from a labor standpoint compared to the unionized retailers. Of course, the Bay Area is a heavy union region, and shoppers support union supermarkets like Safeway, Lucky Stores, the independents mentioned above, and others who pay their employees well. In fact, it's likely Tesco will be welcomed to the Bay Area with an organized campaign against their lower wages. There is such a campaign currently going on in Southern California against Tesco but its fairly small. Expect a larger, better organized campaign in the Bay Area, which is the most liberal region in the U.S.
Either way, established Bay Area retailers like Safeway and Whole Foods won't sit back and let Tesco take significant market share with its Fresh & Easy stores in the region. In fact, Safeway CEO Steve Burd has already said the chain is studying Tesco's format and is prepared to open its own Safeway convenience-type stores if the retailer believes Tesco is becoming a threat with its Fresh & Easy format in the Western U.S.
Whole Foods also is in the process of converting a former Wild Oats store in Boulder, Colorado into a new retail concept for the grocer called "Whole Foods Express." We think this development is in part a reaction to Fresh & Easy. We also believe Whole Foods won't hesitate to roll its "Express" stores out in places like the Bay Area and Southern California if they determine Tesco is taking market share from them with its upscale, convenience-type stores.
Tesco's Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Market format could do very well throughout the Bay Area and elsewhere in Northern California however. In the Bay Area's suburbs there's a huge base of time-pressed dual income families who like the concept of being able to get fresh, prepared foods, fresh produce and meats, basic, specialty and natural groceries in a fast and convenient way, without having to shop a large store.
In both the suburbs and cities like San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose, there also is a large, single professional population who doesn't cook often or at all and spends a sizable amount of their disposable incomes at restaurants and for prepared foods to go.
Trader Joe's has markets throughout the Bay Area and Northern California and is adding more stores at a rapid clip. Their smaller store, upscale format is very successful in the region. The Bay Area also is a "foodie" region. Its consumers have an appreciation and like for quality foods, and if Tesco is able to offer the same quality upscale fresh, prepared foods at its Fresh & Easy markets as it does at its stores in the UK, the offerings should go over well with the region's quality food loving population, helping to make Fresh & Easy stores a success.
Fresh & Easy Store Opening Update
Coming Up: The first six Fresh & Easy Neighborhood Markets will open at 10:AM on November 8 in Southern California cities of Los Angeles, Anaheim, West Covina, Upland, Arcadia and Hemet. Five Fresh & Easy markets will opn in the Las Vegas metropolitan area on November 14. On November 28 another store will open in the Orange County (Southern California) of Laguna. Stores will open in Arizona before the year is over, as well as additional Fresh & Easy markets in Southern California (including San Diego) and Nevada.
A Little Background Reading: This article from today's (10-27-2007) London Daily Telegraph newspaper talks about the numerous British retailers of all types who have ventured to the U.S., only to fail. As the article says, "The U.S. has long been a graveyard for UK retailers." However, in the piece Tesco says it will be different than all of the others who've ventured into the U.S. retail market, only to fail and close shop. The story provides some good background to our piece.
However, we aren't sure if the cuisine being offered by Britian's Famous Wild Boar Hotel restaurant might not just be taking the concepts of natural, fresh and locally procured just a little to far. The restaurant, located in Crook, near Windermere, in Cumbria UK, is preparing and serving up pancakes made from grey squirrels to diners, according to a story in the London Daily Mail (10-16-2007). And the price is right--as an introduction to the squirrel pancakes, which head chef Marc Sanders describes as "Peking duck-style squirrels wraps, the restaurant is currently offering them to diners for free as an introduction to the new dish on its menu.
The grey squirrels also are locally procured. They're caught on the hotel's 72 acre wooded grounds. Hotel general manager Andy Lemm says the grey squirrels are everywhere on the grounds. "Our diners seemed to enjoy the squirrel pancakes," Lemm told the Daily Mail, "and I thought they tasted rather nice, a bit like rabbit," he added.
Grey squirrels are killing off red squirrels in the UK. As such the reds have become an endangered species while the government has encouraged hunters and others to eliminate the greys. Britian's Lord Inglewood, a conservationist, warned Brits that the red squirrel would soon become extinct if grey squirrels are allowed to go on increasing. Red squirrels are native and the greys aren't.
Lord Inglewood also suggested one way to deal with the problem would be to foster a market for grey squirrel meat. He told Brits that Americans eat grey squirrel and even have a number of recipes for the meat, including what he discribed as the most popular dish in the U.S., Brunswick Stew, which the Lord says "is casseroled squirrel."
He wants famous British chefs like Jamie Oliver to promote grey squirrel-based dishes for school dinners. (Really, the Lord told the Daily Mail that, we couldn't make it up.)
Meanwhile, chef Marc Sanders decided to take the Lord up on his suggestions by creating the squirrel pancakes and putting them on the hotel's menu. The hotel's general manager also had a hand in the dish since he was looking for a way to help rid the grounds of the grey squirrel infestation.
Fresh, all natural, locally procured--the grey squirrels do hit all the hot buttons with today's foodies. And we must say the squirrel Peking-style pancakes do look attractive in the picture. Perhaps what was once unmentionable cuisine will become tomorrow's new trendy food dish. We're not sure though, those grey squirrels are rather cute. And a wise man once told us never to eat meat from an animal that's much cuter than you are.
We would give the squirrel pancakes a go as the Brits say. Would you? Let us know if you would in the comments link below.